COPING WITH LAND SHORTAGE, HOUSING NEEDS & POPULATION CONGESTION

A friend, who had read my article entitled My Crystal Ball Visions on Malaysia-Singapore & Myanmar (posted on Aug.7, 2013) asked me a couple of mind-prodding questions while we were having a chit-chat session. “What do you foresee regarding how Singapore will cope with the shortage of land issue two or three decades from now? And how many Singaporeans really want to set up homes in their neighbouring Malaysian soil instead of merely buying properties in the Iskandar Development Area (which is adjacent to the island nation and just a “stone’s throw” away) for investment only?”

I was quick to retort: “I do not have privy information on affirmed plans of Singapore’s future landscape, so it is not apt for me to predict without concrete basis. But let me ask you this question for ponder, what options does the small island nation have now to overcome the issue 20 or 30 years down the road?” He appeared perplexed.

I elaborated to him that land space availability to cater for a significant population growth will be a concern Singapore has to face up. According to a report by AP in February this year, the projected population by year 2030 would reach 6.9 million – an increase of 1.3 million from present. Naturally, the Singapore Government can be expected to have already proactively drawn out plans as pre-emptive options.

Perhaps, one of the ready options open to the Government is to continue land reclamation in order to extend the coastline further. After all, sea reclaimed land already accounted for one-fifth of the island’s total land area to-date.

 (One of the reclamation projects to increase land space, which will change the shape of S'pore)
 

Although Singapore may claim sovereign rights over some distance of territorial sea span, yet such a move is not without challenges. First, continuous ample sand supplies must be available. My research via Google revealed Malaysia and Indonesia stopped supplying sand since 1997 and 2007 respectively. Cambodia has somewhat restricted sand exports. Invariably, scarcity in supply will lead to marked increase in prices on demand.

Secondly, there is also the moral element relating to marine environment conservation to contend with. Few years ago, Malaysia expressed concern of harm to marine environment which could negatively impact the livelihood of small fishermen living at the coastline of its Johor State due to Singapore’s reclamation activities along the Straits of Johor, the channel between Johor  and Singapore. Malaysia also argued that reclamation at the Pulau Tekong point of Singapore would bring about navigational difficulty due to narrowing of the channel. The matter was resolved when the International Tribunal of the Law of the Sea mediated for minor changes to moderate the reclamation works at Pulau Tekong and for monitoring of ecology. International environmentalists are against large scale dredging of river and sea sand as they fear such activities, if unabated, can lead to depletion of fish stock, altering tidal flows and water levels, and also be detrimental to long distance migratory birds which rely on intertidal mudflats for sustenance.

Perhaps, another (alternative) option is to explore the possibility of subterranean or underground living as the future frontier. According to AP, the Building Construction Authority said such scene could materialise by 2050. I am not surprised about this talk. As it is, below-the-surface development has taken place. A blog in the name of My Property Guru wrote about Phase 1 works on the Jurong Rock Caverns project at the depth of 130 m., to cater for storage facilities. Already, underground stations and retail shops exist.  It is just a matter of expanding and extending more sideways and downwards for other purposes. CNN Travel, in an article three years ago, reported the Economic Strategies Committee (ESC) was formulating the Underground Master Plan.
(Part of the Rock Caverns development works earmarked for storage facilities)

The concept of subterranean living is not new. Yahoo News carried a report that Holland had planned to build an underground sub-city in (or more aptly phrased as “beneath”) Amsterdam at the estimated cost of US$14.4 billion, commencing 2018. The structures would be beneath the canals and streets of Amsterdam.

(Model subterranean homes overseas - will these examples be part of the living scene in S'pore?)

But would living underground be conducive for people? Would it be devoid of natural light and fresh air? Would there be water seepage problems? What about the acoustic effect? What about any health impact risks? These may be the probable issues to overcome for the option to be practical.

Perhaps, having more Singaporeans relocate to set homes in Iskandar Development Area in Johor State, Malaysia may be a viable option. Bearing in mind that the development of Iskandar area itself and major new property schemes are on joint ventures between parties of both nations, surely the Singapore Government would encourage Singaporeans to support the projects. Success of the JVs will contribute to the GDP and GNI growth of Singapore.

(Map of Iskandar Development Area - perimeter marked in red. Adjacent to it is Singapore - shaded in white. In between is the channel, Straits of Johor)

I foresee two categories of Singaporeans as potential home setters in Iskandar:

(1. A two-storey terrace house at very affordable price of RM390,000.  2, A spacious and posh property priced at RM1.26 million. How much will these types of properties cost in Singapore, in Sing Dollars???)

Certain doubts may linger in some Singapore nationals whose socio-cultural values, behavioural and general mind sets are different than Malaysians. The key deciding factor is, how many Singaporeans would feel comfortable settling down in the Malaysian environment? For example, I have heard often times from some of my contacts in the island expressing surprise over the frequent untoward events, including crime episodes, prevailing in Malaysia. But I also have quite a few friends from the island who love to visit Malaysia now and then for food flair and landscape variety.

The Star (Malaysia) newspaper carried an interesting story on August 20. It quoted a Johor state assemblyman claiming that more than 200,000 cars from Singapore entered Johor Baru city, which is within the perimeters of Iskandar, daily via the main Causeway and Second Link Crossing. The report did not specify how many of the commuters were Singaporeans; neither did it mention whether the figure included Malaysian registered vehicles returning home from the island. Nevertheless, the news proves a point – many islanders do not shy away from their immediate neighbourhood. Another news report – by Straits Times (Singapore) –  recently highlighted that Singaporeans made up 74% of the non-Malaysian buyers of properties in Iskandar developed by UEM Sunrise. Most of them were said to those frequently going to Johor for business and those seeking a weekend home. Who knows, they may ultimately settle down in Iskandar permanently.

Perhaps, the best option is the combination of the three likely options. Intense congestion is naturally expected in the next few decades. Open land space availability can be predicted to be a more serious issue than now, not just catering for homes but more so for industrial and commercial requirements. Thus, the executive power of Singapore must optimise whatever avenues it could grasp in order to thrust the island nation to a vibrant future, like what it has done over the past few decades.

IMPORTANT NOTE: The contents of this write-up are reflections of my personal perceptions, and not referring to affirmed official views or information cited by any relevant authorities of Singapore.  Readers are invited to share their thoughts, whether in consonance or dissonance with what I personally foresee.