TRUTHS ABOUT THE ENDEAVOUR OF PEOPLE IN DIRECT SALES
ST Jimmy | Monday, September 26, 2011 | | 0 comments
Growth factors favour Malaysia - My Article which was published @ NST; 2nd Sept 2011
ST Jimmy | Thursday, September 22, 2011 | | 0 comments
Growth factors favour Malaysia
In the face of global uncertainties, a question in the minds of local investors, business circles and market players would be: how much will we be impacted?
The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index recently lost momentum, albeit to a lesser extent than its counterparts in Asia, in reaction to the negative events in the US and eurozone.
Malaysia has insulation against such uncertainties. Allow me to cite substantiating points.
The New Economic Model and Economic Transformation Programme serve as development efforts to sustain continuous growth in line with the drive for high-income nation status by 2020.
Notwithstanding doubts cast by some quarters on the efficacy of implementation by the government, about half of the outlined 131 entry point projects have taken off.
To reassure public and investor' confidence that the government is bent on boosting the country's competitiveness, six strategic reform initiatives have been identified for roll out.
They are public finance reform, government's role in business, human capital development, public service delivery, international standards and liberalisation, and Bumiputera small- and medium-scale enterprises.
The Global Peace Index ranked Malaysia as the most peaceful coun try in Southeast Asia, fourth safest in Asia Pacific, and 19th safest and peaceful out of 153 countries. This should paint a positive scene for foreign investments.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) appears on track to exceed US$10 billion (RM30 billion) this year.
The first quarter scored US$3.7 billion. Last year's total FDI was US$9.1 billion while 2009 recorded a low US$1.4 billion. We can see a revival in FDI.
The ringgit outperforms the dollar. The US credit downgrade is expected to push down the dollar's value further.
Analysts predict the ringgit-dollar exchange rate to fall to around 2.75 by the end of next year. Supported by favourable interest rate differentials, liquidity inflow into our country could be strong.
Foreign investors seek safer alternatives. Attraction is being drawn to Asia (except Japan), including Malaysia, because of the region's healthy economic fundamentals.
More inflow into Malaysia will, in turn, strengthen the ringgit, and pave the way for favourable financial markets.
The first half of this year showed a surge of interest in corporate bonds, with 12 per cent growth.
Sixty-eight per cent of the RM31.2 billion bonds issued up to June were from new issuances. The strong increase in issuances depicts the corporate bond market as a sought-after avenue for funding.
Large-cap Japanese companies with substantial cash reserves are keen on buying assets or mergers and acquisitions in Asia, including Malaysia.
The Edge magazine, in its Aug 1 issue, wrote: "Japanese firms are most aggressive in Malaysia. They have also been the top foreign acquirers here over the last 12 months, accounting for 34.5 per cent of foreign acquisition deals valued at about US$2.07 billion, according to data extracted from Bloomberg."
One of the reasons cited is the operating cost in Malaysia that is still lower than the rest of the region because of subsidies and good management.
One aspect commonly concurred by analysts is that Asia will be the key driver for economic growth over the next two decades.
China is set to overtake the US as the largest economy by then.
In 2030, the Asian giant is predicted to constitute about a quarter of the global gross domestic product while the US and eurozone will lag behind.
Malaysia, together with its Asean members, has an intertwined relationship with China as a result of trade agreements and memorandums of understanding.
Malaysia also has economic ties with the other big brothers in Asia. Malaysia and Asean will be interdependent with the bigger Asian nations as far as the economy is concerned. In short, if China and Asia do well, Malaysia will, too.
As for the near term, analysts remain bullish on local equities in anticipation of the next general election being held by the end of the year.
They say there will be a run-up in the local stock market before the polls.
JIMMY S.T. FOKKuala Lumpur
Basic Ingredients Of A Sales Force Member: Source, Element & Essence
ST Jimmy | Wednesday, September 21, 2011 | | 0 comments
Unit Trust & Investment Link: To Go In Or Not Now?
ST Jimmy | Wednesday, September 14, 2011 | | 0 comments
A friend who read my commentary on "Latest Updates/Events Pertaining To Economic & Market Overview", posted on Sep. 12, posed me this question: "What about buying unit trust (UT) now? Don't you think UT funds could be considered as safer or less risky assets, or deemed also as defensive assets, in the current downturn market experience?"
I replied that I concurred with him. For that matter, I also said the same statement may be applicable to investment link (IL) product, which essentially is UT plus some some life insurance coverage. I would be inclined to classify single premium IL in the similar category as UT.
Why do I opine that now may also be the opportune time to go for UT or IL? My rationale for saying so is as follows:
* Fund managers of UT and IL funds place the money received from customers into varied baskets of equity stocks (for customers who prefer to go for equity assets), thus the investment risk is more contained by spreading out across a range of stocks.
* Many fund managers use specific indexes as benchmark reference. In some ways, their investment philosophy or approach may somewhat be in line with the list of stocks in the specific index. If I recall correctly, this is termed as Relative Return Strategy (Note to my friends who are well-versed in this territory - please correct me if I am wrong).
* Allow me to illustrate by way of a simulated situation. Let's take the scenario of the previous recession period of year 2008 when the key local stock market index, KLCI (now FBM-KLCI) plunged to around 800 points. Presume that you had invested in a UT or IL equity fund which traded in the varied stocks in the list of the index at that time. FBM-KLCI hit almost 1,600 points at its peak this year, and it is now hovering around 1,400+ points in the latest bearish market situation. Even at 1,400+ points now, your simulated investment would have seen noticeable gains compared to the time of purchase three years ago when the index was around 800 points.
That's all I want to add. I welcome comments.
Disclaimer: The above are my personal opinions. You are advised to form your own conclusion with regard to my sharing. You may choose to concur or disagree with me. Please be notified that should you decide to invest in UT or IL now, it is your personal choice based on your own conclusion or opinion
Best Regards.
New Postings 1) On China & RMB. 2)On Basic Ingredients In A Sales Organization
ST Jimmy | Wednesday, September 14, 2011 | | 0 comments
Latest Updates/Events Pertaining To Economic & Market Overview
ST Jimmy | Tuesday, September 13, 2011 | | 1 comments
The investor circles at large, including my compatriots in Malaysia, are mired with reservations and cautious tread as they try to figure out what may likely be the scenario in the next one-and-the-half years from now, amid varying stories from different market protagonists about the global economy. There appears not much of improvements in the macro-economics of the US and Eurozone (needless for me to re-mention what the issues and concerns are). Japan seems to be busy re-constructing its infrastructure and supply chain, but we have yet to hear vibrant news about the success of its efforts to revive its economic standing in the global front.
Words like recession, deflation, inflation, double dip, correction, downturn, technical rebound etc. frequently pop up in the news media. I see less reference to depression and stagflation, and perhaps that may garner some comfort to intended market players. On the other side of the economic coin, we also come across comments that the situation is only temporary, and steadier tides should roll in after the rough waves recede......probably by end of this year or so? The conservative protagonists say, "Stay away from equities for the time being, go for safer assets". The adventurous ones say, "Now's opportunity to pick up good stocks at lower prices." As the perfect crystal ball does not exist for any party to predict exactly what will be the scene at the end of this year and the whole of next year, it is best that we make our own conclusions by being cognizant (consciously aware) of the present trends and events. By doing so, even if we do decide to head for the investment path now, we at least tread with some form of calculated direction.
Allow me to cite some pointers that may be pertinent to reflect on and then form your own overview about the markets for the nearer or longer terms.
* Notwithstanding differing opinions about what is yet to come, one salient concurred view that stands out is, current incessant volatility prevails in the global stock markets. It is more difficult for a would-be investor to foresee the level of stability of markets, at least for the immediate near term.
* Many investors now prefer the safer or less risky assets in the stead of equities. Bonds, like highly rated government papers, have shown greater demand. Gold has emerged as the sought-after alternative asset by people who are wary of the economic and market situations or those who are concerned with continual rising inflation. As it is, the demand hike for gold has uplifted its price to exorbitant levels.
* European Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso very recently declared that he did not expect Europe to slide into recession and that the European Union and the Euro was "strong and resilient". He was also quoted he did not anticipate a recession in Europe as the latest forecast by the European Commission showed there would be modest growth. Yet, there was another article which reported that growth in Eurozone services eased for the 5th consecutive month in August, and the bloc risked contracting in the 4th quarter if business conditions did not improve. Rating agency S&P meanwhile said the region should be able to escape a double-dip risk with a sluggish growth rate of 1.7%. Apparently, the reports paint varying scenes.
* On the Asian front, an outflow trend of foreign investments from the equity sector could be seen in the past two months. Foreign investors are the net sellers of Asian equities.
* Overall, GDP growth in overall Asia is expected to be slower this year and next year compared to 2010. However, the Asian Development Bank anticipates the growth rate for Asia to be 7.5% this year and 7% in 2012. China, the fast emerging big brother of the global economy, may grow by around 8.5% this year albeit at a slowing rate. On the longer term, Asia is deemed to be the region to invest in because of its strong macro-economic fundamentals. However, being export oriented and reliant on exports to the US, Europe and Japan for sustaining growth, Asia will invariably be impacted by any significant downturn in demand from the three major territories.
Now, back to my home ground of Malaysia. Some latest developments may serve as positive factors for the local investment and stock markets. Let's look at them (below).
* Just recently, the Global Competitiveness Report released by the World Economic Forum identified Malaysia as the 2nd most competitive nation (after Singapore) in ASEAN and ranked 6th position in the Asia-Pacific region. Worldwide, it is at the 21st spot - a jump of 5 points from last year.
* Despite the slowing global economy, the progress of projects under the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) still stays on track. As at to-date, 84 per cent of the 87 initiatives announced in October last year are undergoing implementation. News reports outline that 23 are already operational, 50 have commenced while the remaining 14 are in progress. At the same time, the Prime Minister just announced another 8 more initiatives which are expected to involve RM1.4 billion in investments.
* Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) are flowing in prominently. For the first 7 months of 2011, the country attracted RM31.7 billion in FDIs, which already exceeded the whole of 2010's figure of RM29.3 billion and a huge quantum leap compared to RM5 billion secured in 2009. Of pertinent note is that 52 per cent of the FDIs valued at RM15 billion are in the manufacturing sector.
* According to one business magazine, some Malaysian investors have now shown preference to "defensive" stocks or those which may likely rebound in the short term. Defensive stocks are the ones which remain stable in different business cycles. During times of recession, they perform better than the market; but during expansion cycles, they perform below the market. They are not highly correlated with business cycles. They may also give constant dividends. Defensive stocks are companies which produce goods or services required by consumers in daily living, e.g. utility industry - every household needs gas and electricity regardless of the economy of a nation.
Lastly, my parting inputs for your consideration, and here goes.....
In periods of high market volatility, and when prices are near the bottom, it is better to take the medium to longer term view by selecting and picking good stocks. Look out for good bargains. Malaysians in particular may want to look at stocks which are linked to developments or initiatives under the ETP.
Special Note & Disclaimer: The contents of this sharing are mainly based on information extracted from various media sources, plus some of my personal observations/views. I shall leave to you to counter-check and verify the validity of the contents. I shall also advise that you conclude your own opinions, which may or may not differ from mine. Please note I shall not be deemed to be responsible in event of discrepancies that may arise.
More Quotes For Your Ponder.......On Corporate Politics
ST Jimmy | Sunday, September 04, 2011 | | 0 comments
Current era corporate work environment is many times more complex compared to a few decades ago. Competitive and self-centric values have now become a prevalent culture of the corporate world. While there is nothing wrong in being imbued with the spirit of internal competition amongst peers in big organizations, and while there is also nothing wrong in being a self-centrist in order to climb the corporate ladder, yet executives of the current era should keep prudent watch on the grounds they tread on.
To make the story short, perhaps the following passages (below) may offer food for thought. These anecdote-type passages were coined and recorded by me for my personal reminder. Here goes.......
* Be consciously aware of the ploy of politicians and self-centrists in times of turbulence. They can alternate their role as "angels of god" or "agents of the devil" to various contending parties without the latter realizing. Their single motive is simple: "I win, you all lose."
* A shrewd opportunist is one who serves as advocate and adversary to competing parties without them realizing his real motives. He can be within your party, beside your party, or outside your party. In times of turbulence, the opportunist comes to the fore to declare his sentiments...........only for the purpose of fulfilling his own agenda.
* Play no corporate politics. But be consciously aware enough, so that you can protect your back when situations warrant so.
* Do not readily fall for good story tellers.......you got to decipher what they tell. A good story teller may never be serious in what he says.........because he may not say what he means and may not mean what he says. After all, all he wants to do is to continue telling stories.
Once gain, happy pondering!
Businessman Mentality VS Adminstrator Mentality
ST Jimmy | Saturday, September 03, 2011 | | 1 comments
In my past 37 years of employment in three (3) private organizations prior to my recent retirement, I have had worked under the leadership of more than 10 CEOs who reflected either the "businessman mentality" or "administrator mentality" in management style.
Allow me to outline the traits of the two, below:-
Businessman Mentality Preference Administrator Mentality Preference
1. Business expansion. Business conservation & administration.
2. Marketing orientated. Service orientated.
3. Sales staff and customers. Documents, reports, admin. support staff.
4. Revenue and profits. Smooth workflow.
5. Public relations. Strategies and planning.
6. Articulate verbally. Articulate through writing.
7. Mobile - travel, move around a lot. Spend most time in office and home.
8. Socializing, sociable. Homely, family conscientious.
9. Broad overview and key pointers. Meticulous - note all relevant details.
10. Leave processing details to others. Personal overseeing and supervision.
11. Discussions and meetings. Paper work, reports, writing.
12. Creative and innovative. Analytical.
13. Not so orderly, flexible, play by the ear. Orderly, structured, prioritize
14. Time management is an issue. Good time management.
Pertinent Question: Does an organization need a CEO who is more of the businessman type, or the administrator type?
My Answer:
* The best is a combination of both types, but that would be a tall order. Of the many CEOs whom I served in my 37 years of employment, I think I can only pin-point 1 who was able to keep a balance of the two sides to some extent. Although he was more inclined to the businessman mental frame, yet he did shift focus to the other side when and where necessary. That was the gentleman whom both the sales and administrative personnel at large were happy to work with, and that was the time (in the 80s') I had a strong sense of affiliation with the organization that employed me. The simple reason was because he knew how to take care of both the sales people and those in the administration. In fact, I was very proud working for that organization and that CEO at the period of time. And that was the period of time the organization achieved its peak in both business and service results.
If you are aspiring to be CEO one day, would you deem yourself to be in the left category (businessman mentality) or right category (administrator mentality)? If you think you may not have the combination of both sides, you would still have a solution: Hire a No. 2 in hierarchy who is strong in the category which you yourself are not strong in. However, one word of caution: Ensure he complements and supplements your efforts, and not negate your style of management.
Now, allow me to end this posting with a couple of quotes for you to think about:
"See and perceive more;
Listen more;
Gather more (information for your own file);
Talk less;
Mind less (especially matters not relating to your realm of work);
But when there's a right opportunity to do so, fan hard either by words or actions;
To stir up an unexpected breeze that jolts up other people!"
"The best way to confirm a person's true traits is to recall and analyze his past deeds, actions, behavior and demeanor. If a particular trend is eminently noticeable, then that reflects his inner character."
Cheers and best regards.