MY CRYSTAL BALL VISIONS ON MALAYSIA-SINGAPORE & MYANMAR

My new crystal ball has recently showed me interesting visions of Malaysia-Singapore (as one common territory) and Myanmar in the not-so-far future of within 10 years or slightly more. But first, it cast an overview of some events that are taking place in the two territories, and indicated to me that these will trigger the realisation of the future visions.

MALAYSIA-SINGAPORE

Current Scenes:

1.      . Various prominent joint ventures have been or are being sealed between Singaporean corporations with Malaysian counterparts to transform the flagship Iskandar Development Area of Johor, the southern state of Malaysia likened as “across the street” neighbour of island nation Singapore (separated by the narrow Straits of Johor for less than 2 km). Mega deals on properties, amenities and infrastructures are lined up for implementation roll. Singaporean developers have begun to build up land holdings in Iskandar. Also, Singaporean contractors are set to be involved in the JV projects.

(Modern homes will mushroom in Iskandar - JV projects of established developers)

(Legoland attracts families, especially children, from Singapore during weekends)

2.       . The new Customs & Immigration Complex and the new ferry terminal at Puteri Harbour in Nusaja, which is part of Iskandar, just opened about three months ago, UEM Land, the operator of the terminal, has started catering trips to Batam Island and Tanjung Balai Kariman in Indonesia. Plans are afoot to extend services to Singapore in the near future. Pueteri Harbour is also being modelled as a waterfront integrated marina theme park.

3.      .  An agreement to connect the Mass Rail Transit (MRT) between Singapore and Johor Baru (JB), the capital city of Johor, has been cued. Target date for completion is 2018.

4.      .  Also, a high speed train service is in the pipeline for launch in 2020. The service will cut down travel time drastically between Kuala Lumpur, the capital city of Malaysia, and Singapore City to 90 minutes from the present 6 hours by normal express train.

Future Visions: 

1.      .  Increased daily criss-cross commutations of Malaysians and Singaporeans in view of public transportation ease.

2.      .  More Malaysians working in Singapore but residing in Johor Baru and the Iskandar area. I also see visions of many Singapore-based foreigners setting homes in JB but continue to work in Singapore in view of the stronger Singapore Dollar and attractive remuneration offers.

3.      .  More Singaporeans owning second or weekend homes in Iskandar where impressive residential properties supported by up-to-date amenities will be up for grabs. Staying in JB or Nusajaya and working in Singapore will be a good option for those who prefer larger living space at lower cost.

4.       . New residential colonies in Iskandar will portray a cross-national identity with mix of Malaysians, Singaporeans and some other nationals. I see the vision of at least 50 per cent of the living population in Iskandar being foreigners.

5.       . Whilst the prices of residential properties in the small island nation are now much higher than its immediate neighbour even without converting the Singapore Dollar to Malaysian Ringgit, home costs in JB and Iskandar will escalate to significant levels due to intense demand.

6.      .  Both nations will benefit economically from JVs. In particular, Iskandar will be the main beneficiary. Job growth will head for a steep trajectory in the next 5 years. From the island, qualified technocrats will be in demand, especially for JV projects. Sectors related to property development, education, healthcare and tourism will flourish in accordance to master plans already paved for roll-out.

And what does my crystal ball show me about Malaysia being able to catch up with Singapore in terms of economic status? Would Malaysia attain its ambition of becoming a developed and high income nation by 2020? Definitely, Malaysians will be much better off than now due to the fray of development initiatives under the New Economic Model (NEM), Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) and Government Transformation Programme (GTP). However, my crystal ball projects a hazy picture of the dream economic ambition. It transmits the message that developed nation status is attainable but the present progress toward this end reflects a challenge. Malaysia must hit more than 6 per cent annual GDP growth on the average from now till 2020. One thing certain is the “advance developing nation” in event the dream target could not be reached. And what about the high income label? Well…….it is highly possible if based on the latest criterion set by World Bank at US$15,000 Gross National Income (GNI) per capita. As at end of last year, Malaysia scored US$9970 GNI per capita, so this target is not too far away to achieve by 2020…….provided the criterion does not change along the way. What is more definite is at least the high middle-income status in event a shortfall occurs due to any upgrade in criterion.

MYANMAR

Current Scenes:

1.      .  The country is expected to open up to more democratic reform in the next three years or so. At the same time, foreign investments have begun to flow in, especially by corporations keen to be pioneers in penetrating the foreseeable expanding markets.

2.      .  Urbanization is increasing at rapid speed. Most Myanmar nationals now live in the countryside or outskirts of urban areas.

3.      .  Development is set to spread at speedy pace over the next few years.

FUTURE VISIONS:

1.      .  From just over  10 per cent of the population now residing in large cities,  the ratio will be more than triple in less than 20 years. 

2.       . Vibrancy of the lifestyle industry at large, such as hotels, restaurants, bars, entertainment, recreation outlets etc. Bars and pubs in particular will be more prolific. A big market for beer is envisaged. Carlsberg must have identified the vast business potentials and therefore venturing into a partnership with Myanmar Golden Star Breweries to move into the local market. Perhaps those are the same reasons for Heineken to embark a tie-up with Alliance Brewery Company (ABC). Skol will be available in the market too.

(Above:Lively and posh pub in Yangon. Below: A punk rock band performing in Yangon)

3.      .  Tourism will flourish. I see Myanmar as another popular holiday destination in the region and a competitor to Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam.  In this respect, many new hotels will crop up to facilitate holidaymaking, business meetings and conventions.

(Three popular tourist spots among the many attractions that Myanmar offers to visitors)

I am Malaysian. I foresee substantial Malaysian entrepreneurs and corporations scouting opportunities to establish  business there. Malaysian Airlines System (MAS) already has increased the number of flights to Yangon, the capital of that country. Australian owned Jetstar is also increasing flights between KL and Yangon. I see other airlines following suit. I am sure the airlines industry expects a swell in passenger demand in the next 5 years. Tan Chong Motors, the main dealer for Nissan cars in Malaysia, is venturing with exclusive rights to sell its brand of completely built-up (CBU) vehicles in Myanmar, aimed for longer term returns than immediate.

(Tan Chong Motor's Nissan cars ready to penetrate the car market in Myanmar)

(Note: All pictures in this article are extracts from various websites)

(Special note: The contents of this sharing are my personal opinions extrapolated from prevailing events and personal research. My views may or may not be consonant with the perceptions of other analysts and readers on the subjects. I welcome comments from readers)