My new crystal ball has recently showed me interesting
visions of Malaysia-Singapore (as one common territory) and
Myanmar in the not-so-far future of within 10 years or slightly more. But
first, it cast an overview of some events that are taking place in the two territories,
and indicated to me that these will trigger the realisation of the future
visions.
MALAYSIA-SINGAPORE
Current Scenes:
1. .
Various prominent joint ventures have been or
are being sealed between Singaporean corporations with Malaysian counterparts
to transform the flagship Iskandar Development Area of Johor, the southern
state of Malaysia likened as “across the street” neighbour of island nation
Singapore (separated by the narrow Straits of Johor for less than 2 km).
Mega deals on properties, amenities and infrastructures are lined up for implementation roll. Singaporean developers have begun to build up
land holdings in Iskandar. Also, Singaporean contractors are set to be involved
in the JV projects.
(Modern homes will mushroom in Iskandar - JV projects of established developers)
(Legoland attracts families, especially children, from Singapore during weekends)
2. . The new Customs & Immigration Complex and
the new ferry terminal at Puteri Harbour in Nusaja, which is part of Iskandar,
just opened about three months ago, UEM Land, the operator of the
terminal, has started catering trips to Batam Island and Tanjung Balai Kariman
in Indonesia. Plans are afoot to extend services to Singapore in the near
future. Pueteri Harbour is also being modelled as a waterfront integrated
marina theme park.
3. .
An agreement to connect the Mass Rail Transit
(MRT) between Singapore and Johor Baru (JB), the capital city of Johor, has
been cued. Target date for completion is 2018.
4. .
Also, a high speed train service is in the
pipeline for launch in 2020. The service will cut down travel time drastically
between Kuala Lumpur, the capital city of Malaysia, and Singapore City to 90
minutes from the present 6 hours by normal express train.
Future Visions:
1. .
Increased daily criss-cross commutations of
Malaysians and Singaporeans in view of public transportation ease.
2. .
More Malaysians working in Singapore but
residing in Johor Baru and the Iskandar area. I also see visions of many
Singapore-based foreigners setting homes in JB but continue to work in
Singapore in view of the stronger Singapore Dollar and attractive remuneration
offers.
3. .
More Singaporeans owning second or weekend homes
in Iskandar where impressive residential properties supported by up-to-date
amenities will be up for grabs. Staying in JB or Nusajaya and working in
Singapore will be a good option for those who prefer larger living space at
lower cost.
4. . New residential colonies in Iskandar will
portray a cross-national identity with mix of Malaysians, Singaporeans and some
other nationals. I see the vision of at least 50 per cent of the living
population in Iskandar being foreigners.
5. . Whilst the prices of residential properties in
the small island nation are now much higher than its immediate neighbour even
without converting the Singapore Dollar to Malaysian Ringgit, home costs in JB
and Iskandar will escalate to significant levels due to intense demand.
6. .
Both nations will benefit economically from JVs.
In particular, Iskandar will be the main beneficiary. Job growth will head for
a steep trajectory in the next 5 years. From the island, qualified technocrats
will be in demand, especially for JV projects. Sectors related to property
development, education, healthcare and tourism will flourish in accordance to
master plans already paved for roll-out.
And what does my crystal ball show me about Malaysia being
able to catch up with Singapore in terms of economic status? Would Malaysia attain
its ambition of becoming a developed and high income nation by 2020?
Definitely, Malaysians will be much better off than now due to the fray of
development initiatives under the New Economic Model (NEM), Economic
Transformation Programme (ETP) and Government Transformation Programme (GTP).
However, my crystal ball projects a hazy picture of the dream economic
ambition. It transmits the message that developed nation status is attainable but the present progress
toward this end reflects a challenge. Malaysia must hit more than 6 per cent
annual GDP growth on the average from now till 2020. One thing certain is
the “advance developing nation” in event the dream target could not be reached.
And what about the high income label? Well…….it is highly possible if based on
the latest criterion set by World Bank at US$15,000 Gross National Income (GNI)
per capita. As at end of last year, Malaysia scored US$9970 GNI per capita, so
this target is not too far away to achieve by 2020…….provided the criterion
does not change along the way. What is more definite is at least the high
middle-income status in event a shortfall occurs due to any upgrade in criterion.
MYANMAR
Current Scenes:
1. .
The country is expected to open up to more
democratic reform in the next three years or so. At the same time, foreign
investments have begun to flow in, especially by corporations keen to be
pioneers in penetrating the foreseeable expanding markets.
2. .
Urbanization is increasing at rapid speed. Most
Myanmar nationals now live in the countryside or outskirts of urban areas.
3. .
Development is set to spread at speedy pace over
the next few years.
FUTURE VISIONS:
1. .
From just over
10 per cent of the population now residing in large cities, the ratio will be more than triple in less
than 20 years.
2. . Vibrancy of the lifestyle industry at large,
such as hotels, restaurants, bars, entertainment, recreation outlets etc. Bars and pubs
in particular will be more prolific. A big market for beer is envisaged. Carlsberg
must have identified the vast business potentials and therefore venturing into a partnership with Myanmar Golden
Star Breweries to move into the local market. Perhaps those are the same reasons for Heineken to embark a tie-up with
Alliance Brewery Company (ABC). Skol will be available in the market too.
(Above:Lively and posh pub in Yangon. Below: A punk rock band performing in Yangon)
3. .
Tourism will flourish. I see Myanmar as another
popular holiday destination in the region and a competitor to Thailand,
Indonesia and Vietnam. In this respect,
many new hotels will crop up to facilitate holidaymaking, business meetings and
conventions.
I am Malaysian. I foresee substantial Malaysian
entrepreneurs and corporations scouting opportunities to establish business there. Malaysian Airlines System
(MAS) already has increased the number of flights to Yangon, the capital of
that country. Australian owned Jetstar is also increasing flights between KL
and Yangon. I see other airlines following suit. I am sure the airlines industry
expects a swell in passenger demand in the next 5 years. Tan Chong Motors, the
main dealer for Nissan cars in Malaysia, is venturing with exclusive rights to
sell its brand of completely built-up (CBU) vehicles in Myanmar, aimed for
longer term returns than immediate.
(Note: All pictures in this article are extracts from various websites)
(Special note: The contents of this sharing are my personal
opinions extrapolated from prevailing events and personal research. My
views may or may not be consonant with the perceptions of other analysts and readers on the
subjects. I welcome comments from readers)
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