Investment Thoughts For 2013

ST Jimmy | Thursday, December 27, 2012 | | 0 comments

(THIS ARTICLE IS CONTRIBUTED BY CHAN CHEH SHIN, MARKET ANALYST OPERATING IN MALAYSIA AND SINGAP0RE. I THANK CHAN FOR SHARING HIS THOUGHTS FOR THE VIEW OF READERS.)



Looking into 2013 investment landscape of G3
Europe: slipping into recession
Please consider the quote and chart below:
The Bundesbank expects Germany's economy to grow just 0.4 percent next year, down from a June forecast of 1.6 percent. The new projection is marked by "a high degree of uncertainty", it added, and "the balance of risks is on the downside". (7 Dec 2012)
Both GDP and PMI are in negative zone now.
By now, EU is in recession. All growth data is contracting. By now, we should be asking: Is EU heading for depression?

Depression has the following characters:
  1. Long period of recession;
  2. Abnormally large increases in unemployment;
  3. Fall in the availability of credit, often due to some kind of banking or financial crisis;
  4. Shrinking output as buyers dry up and suppliers cut back on production and investment; large number of bankruptcies including sovereign debt defaults;
  5. Significant reduced amounts of trade and commerce, especially international;
Points (1) to (3) are already here. Point (4) is coming soon. Point (5) is building up as globally countries will impose more capital control/currency manipulation.
Japan stock is a good buy or good bye?
The previous month, we argued Japanese yen could deteriorate further. Let’s turn to Nikkei now. It has been in downtrend since 1980. Will it change?

Naturally, Japan's demographic situation, the pervasive conservatism and the well-known fiscal debt problem are very negative for Nikkei. Today more diapers for adults are sold in Japan than diapers for babies. Isn't the situation hopeless? However, one would do well to remember at this juncture that this is precisely the situation found near major lows – all the fundamentals look bad and well beyond remedy, with a sole exception: stocks are cheap.
That combined with sliding yen, Nikkei will run up. A word of caution: the weakening of Yen can only help the Nikkei if and only if the factor for the weak yen is not from loss in Japan financial system/monetary policy.
US – a better bet?
US real GDP may expand at a rate below historical trend, but the following key sectors that will help drive growth over the coming years.
  • The Oil & Gas sector will help strengthen the US recovery by reducing the drag from the trade deficit over the coming years.
  • The housing market will continue to improve, albeit slowly, which will be instrumental in shoring up household balance sheets.
  • The substantial deleveraging in the banking sector over the past five years means that the worst is behind us, thus, a potential for the banking sector to expand slowly, underpinning the economic recovery.
  • The US will continue to regain competitiveness in the manufacturing sector as productivity growth outpaces that of wages and the US maintains a competitive advantage in energy efficiency.
  • Demographic and regulatory changes mean that growth in the pharmaceutical and healthcare industry will be strong.
In short: Opportunities exist. The key approach is to move along 2013 with prudent watchful strides. In adverse situations, some opportunities exist. It is a question of whether we can recognise where the opportunities lie in order to take the right prudent stride.

My Recent Trip To Kansai District, Japan - Part 2

ST Jimmy | Sunday, December 02, 2012 | | 0 comments






MY RECENT TRIP TO KANSAI DISTRICT, JAPAN – PART 2: FOOD, LIFESTYLES, CULTURAL TRAITS.

This is the sequel to my earlier sharing posted about a week ago. Again, I am trying to avoid verbiage but instead let my pictures do most of the talk and walk around with captions. However, to complement the entire overview regarding my experience on food, lifestyles and culture during my eight-day visit there, allow me to sum up a few key observations first:

·         *In a nutshell, the people were courteous, well-mannered, agile, orderly and tidy. They moved fast.

·         *Everywhere was the environment of hygiene and cleanliness. I hardly saw any speck of litter in the streets and public places. Even the public toilets were very clean.

·         *The people were generally smartly dressed. The common office attire for men included dark suit and tie. Even employees manning ticketing counters looked smart in suit or blazer.

·         *It’s not their culture to accept tips. In one instance, one of us left some tips in the tray after settling the bill in a restaurant; and after we had walked out to some distance away, the cashier came running to return the money. At a busy supermarket, another friend missed picking up 1 yen change from the tray after making payment; likewise a worker ran to us to return the coin.

·         *Easy vehicle traffic. We did not witness any traffic jam even in the large cities of Osaka, Kobe and Kyoto. Most Japanese used trains to commute. My group did not hire taxis since the train and subway networks were encompassing enough to cover where we wanted to go. For shorter travel time, we chose rapid trains which charged higher rates. We also took the normal trains, which had more route stops. when we did not need to rush from one place to the next. Yes, the trains were very punctual in accordance to specific timing. Cycling was also a common mode of commutation. I saw many smartly dressed Japanese cycling in the hearts of Osaka, Kobe and Kyoto.

·         *Reading seemed to be a common habit. I witnessed many commuters reading books in trains rather than whiling away time.

·         *Popular hang-out spots for men in the evening (I presume after work because they were in suit and tie) were the small local restaurants and bars. Many such outlets had karaoke facilities. The smallest outlets did not have stools – patrons stood around bar counters to drink and eat. Drinking culture” was prevalently seen.

·         *Ladies in kimono were not commonly seen unless in shrines, temples or some special events, or in entertainment outlets.

·         *Osaka appeared to be a “shopping city” hoarded with lots of ladies’ stuffs and branded goods. However, prices were not cheap compared to many other Asian countries. Unlike Malaysia, the malls there hardly had public benches for shoppers to rest.

·         *I noticed that Japanese women, especially younger ladies, liked to wear heavy makeup.

·        *Cost of food was also not cheap too compared to other Asian countries. A small set of noodle or rice meal ranged from 650 to 1,000 Yen on the average (1,000 Yen was equivalent to 40 Malaysian Ringgit).



 (Prime beef BBQ dinner in the first evening upon our arrival. Succulent and "juicy". No, it's not Kobe Beef (the most pricy beef which would cost more than RM500 equivalent per piece of steak). This meal cost us about RM100 per head.)

(Wide varities........available in any food street with rows of restaurants and stalls on both sides.)

(A small supermarket in a market street - well stocked with foodstuffs and nicely displayed.)

(Japanese puffer fish - a famous delicacy. If sliced the wrong way, the meat would be lethally poisonous. The vendors would slice the fish meat for customers.We were tempted to try but dared not venture to take the risk. Note the exorbitant prices.....as high as 16,000 Yen - equivalent to RM640 - in an ordinary market street.)

(To be eaten raw.......at the seafood market in Wakayama)

(Fresh and processed seafood in the Osaka wholesale market.)
(Varieties for taste buds in another food street........fresh chestnuts for frying on the spot, smoked fish, processed "bites" and tit-bits.)

(Kirin Beer, one of the popular beer brands in Japan. It also comes in the "alcohol free" version.......tasted like normal beer to me but without the "arousing" sensation.)

(Freshly brewed Japanese green tea, rich green in colour..........available in Orima-Onsen.)

(Shabu-shabu, steamboat dinner Japanese style........about 3,000 Yen per head. I would grade this meal 6 or 7 points from a scoreboard of 1-10. Suited quite well for the slightly cold weather when we savoured it.)

(We took this from a MOS Burger outlet. This was the best burger I had ever tasted. Cost equivalent to RM12.- RM13.)

(See how well and smartly dressed were these employees in red.)

(Students in smart uniforms, participating outdoor activities.)

(No longer a very common sight.......ladies in kimono and traditional footwear. These pictures were captured nearby a temple area. The young ones were petite, cute and graceful......the older ones were yet resplendent.)

(If I were a lady - which I'm not - I would have bought one set for my wardrobe.....not cheap.)
(Pretty decorative items for display in home and as souvenirs.......again, quite pricy.)

(A small but cute looking house.......plenty of such found at the peripheral areas of cities. Land space and accommodation properties are definitely very costly.)

(We took the rapid train to Osaka city upon arrival at Osaka Airport. Very clean and comfortable.)
(A normal train to the suburbs........also very clean.)


 (Commuters coming out from subway stations. Train is the most popular mode of commutation.)
(Moving about on bicycles.........also another common mode of commutation.)
(A bicycle parking area.)

(Clean streets, free of litter. Cleanliness is a prominent cultural trait in Japan.)











(The Japanese education system believes in a balance between academic, physical, social and cultural elements........both indoor and outdoor.)
(University students on the way to do social work.....cleaning the compound of the Osaka Castle area.)
(Firming up young female students.........physically and mentally.)
(Studying culture and doing homework in a temple compound on a Saturday.)

That's all folks!



























My Trip to Kansai District, Japan

ST Jimmy | Saturday, November 24, 2012 | | 0 comments




ABOUT MY RECENT TRIP TO KANSAI DISTRICT, JAPAN – PART 1
((Foreword: A group of 11 senior citizens, including myself, ventured out on a self-organised trip - i.e. without involvement of any travel agency – from November 5 to 12, 2012 to Kansai. Thanks to three seasoned travellers among us pals, namely Raymond Ho, Jack Lee and Lee Min Tet who volunteered to be the itinerary planners and joint “guides”, I have archived an encompassing account of the trip in the form of short notes and snapshots. In case you may want to consider Kansai as the next holiday destination, you may find my account useful.

What I witnessed and experienced could be categorised in three aspects: (1) sightseeing (2) food (3) lifestyles & cultural traits.

For now, I am sharing only on my sightseeing phenomena. The other two categories will be shared in the next sequential episode as Part 2. So, here comes Part 1: Sightseeing.))

I wish to lay out my account by way of short descriptive points plus photographs with captions on the places that my group visited. Please note that my sharing now is only reflective of places recorded in my camera; there were many places of interest in Kansai which we could not accommodate in our itinerary due to time constraint.

Preliminary Information:

·         *We flew by AirAsiaX. Most of us booked the flight to and fro Osaka (the main city in Kansai) almost one year ago at RM505 (offer rate).

·         *Stayed in Weekly Mansion Osaka at Otomae. Made reservation via the web. Rate: US$53 per night, inclusive of tax, on twin-sharing. This is an apartment hotel, with the necessary facilities, including pantry, kitchen utensils, stove and microwave oven. Free wifi access only at the hotel lobby. Next to the lobby is the laundry machine room - auto-charge service at reasonable rate.

·         *We commuted by train and lots of walking from day 1 upon arrival at Osaka Airport till our departure day.

·         Our places of visit were pre-selected by research via the web by Raymond, Jack and Min Tet. And all in all, I only spent the equivalent of around RM2,600 for air-fare, lodging, food, sightseeing, plus some local foodstuffs (for home) incurred in my eight days in Kansai. Really worth the money spent!


      DAY 1: OSAKA AT NIGHT:
Reflections..........in the midst of Osaka City. Snapshot was taken during a stroll after dinner.)


DAY 2: KYOTO GYOEN NATIONAL GARDEN & YASAKA PAGODA:


                           ( Greenery began to turn colourful in the first week of November)
                                               (Environment of peace and freshness)
                                                                     ( Nice view )

                                                            (Two picturesque scenes)

                                                  (The street up to Yasaka Pagoda)
(The Hollies would have changed their hit song from "He Ain't Heavy, He's My Brother" to "They Ain't Heavy, They're My Customers............pulling up on the sloppy street to the Yasaka Pagoda)

DAY 3: IKOMASANJYO (HIGHLAND THEME PARK), NARA & KOBE PORT

                                                         (Cute looking cable car)
 (Visitors could get a good view of the city below while going uphill in the cable car)
(The rollercoaster in the theme park. The park caters for fun. It is an ideal venue for family day outings, especially families with young children)

(Nara is a suburban township ideal for leisure visit by strolling around. No bustling vehicles, very     clean, lots of souvenirs and foodstuffs for selection)
(This shop makes fresh soft candy balls that stick and linger in taste buds............it entails quite a bit of might and physical activity in the preparation)

                    (Nara Deer Park.......friendly deers greet visitors. The park is very clean)
                                            (One of the serene lake views in the deer park)

                         (Kobe as the city of lights at night.........snapshot taken from Kobe Port)
(The musical fountain at the courtyard of Notre Dame building, hich is situated just beside Kobe Port. A rhapsody.......climax water display when the music became intense)
                                     (Indeed, buildings glitter at night as viewed from the port)

DAY 4: ORIMA-ONSEN & HAKUTSURU SAKE BREWING MUSEUM IN KOBE
                                         (Setting of a hill resort as one enters Orima-Onsen)
(
                                  (Colourful foliage surrounding the hill resort in November)
                    (Even this shop-house was spiked up by colourful foliage on it and around it)
                       (Public sulphur-saturated hot spring to sooth tired feet........free of charge)

                               (The brewery cum museum - producing a popular brand of sake)
                                          (Part of the traditional processes for brewing sake)
                                             Cheers!.......sampling some varieties of sake)
                               (The traditional and best way for drinking sake.......from a bowl)

DAY 5: WAKAYAMA MARINA PARK:
                                (Varieties of raw seafood sold at the seafood market in the park)
                                (Preparing to slice a Salmon fish for the meat to be eaten raw)
                                                 (Scenery........looking out to the sea)
(Wakayama has entertainment for children too........."let's shake hands to be friends")

DAY 6: OSAKA CASTLE PARK:
                                          (View of the fortress and castle from a distance)
                                                (Pleasing sight.......surrounding the castle)
 (This is the castle, built in the 17th century and rebuilt in 1931. It now serves as a museum)
                            (Views of the city from the observatory at the top level of the castle)
 (Replicas of the shachi, the legendary dolphin-shaped fish, and fusetora, the crouching tiger)

DAY 7: OSAKA AQUARIUM KANYUKAN:
                      (Some of the graceful marine species not seen back home in Malaysia)

Watch out for Part 2 of my sharing on Kansai - highlights on food, lifestyles and cultural traits, which shall be posted.............very soon.


                                                          



                 



    














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